US Disability Data

Part 4 - Relation with Excess Deaths

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Update Date: November - 2022

Data:

Country: USA

Disabilities data

Period: Monthly data from 2008 onwards.

Data Source (BLS): U.S. Department of Labor Disability Statistics Resources.

Link to the latest data release: Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status.

Excess Mortality data.

The excess mortality data is obtained from our weekly time series, as shown in our analysis sheet for the US and then interpolated to obtain a monthly time series. The calculation of excess deaths is performed using our methodology decribed in our reports (method 2C) that adjusts for changes in the population of different age groups over time.

Period: The data is based upon weekly deaths data from the US CDC spanning from 2015 to 2022.

Source for Weekly Deaths (CDC): Weekly Counts of Death by Jurisdiction and Select Causes of Death.

Source for Vaccination data (CDC): COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States.

Source for Population Estimates (UN - Population division): UN table: Population estimates.

Change in Disabilities versus Excess Deaths

Period: 2021/2 to 2022/11

This section analyses the relationship between excess mortality and the increase in disabilities that started around 2/2021. We perform the analysis first for the Civilian Labor Force as well as the whole Population aged 16-64 and afterwards for the 65+ age group.

The Vaccination doses refer to the total vaccination doses as a percentage of the respective age group population. The vaccination age groups were 19-64 and 65+ as these were the closest age cohorts we could obtain from the CDC vaccination data, to match the BLS disability age cohorts.

We should note that the Civilian Labor Force are the healthiest cohort in the population as these are individuals that are actively engaged in the labor market. From our analysis in part 2, we observed that in relative terms, this cohort was more impacted by the rise in disabilities after 2/2021 (associated with the vaccination rollout) than the "not in the workforce" cohort. We also note that the Civilian Labor Force cohort represents about 76% of the population aged 16-64 and only about 23% of the population aged 65+.

As for excess mortality, the available age groups for the CDC weekly deaths date are 0-25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+.

Therefore, we had to aggregate 25-44 + 45-64 = 25-64 for comparing with the 16-64 age group for disabilities. The 25-64 age group represents about 81.5% of the 16-64 age group for disabilities and consequently the comparison between both datasets should take that fact into account.

For the 65+ age group we estimated excess deaths by aggregating the 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ age groups. This aggregation matched the 65+ age group for disabilities.

Population 16-64

The following charts compare the rise in the total number of disabilities with the rise in excess mortality for the whole population aged 16-64. The chart on the left refers to the time series from 2/2021 (after the vaccine rollout) to 11/2022. The chart on the right, shows the correlation between both time series, with the respective regression line illustrated.

Increase in disabilities in population (16-64) vs vaccine doses

We can observe from the charts above that the rise in disabilities from 2/2021 was accompanied with a rise in excess mortality. The relationship is quite strong as can be observed by the chart on the right. The slope of the regression line is 4.4 which suggests that for each excess death during this period, there were 4.4 more disabilities. As previously mentioned, as the excess mortality age group (25-64) represents roughly 81.5% of the population of the disability age group (16-64) we need to make this adjustment to the slope of the regression, which results in: each excess death during this period corresponded to about 3.6 more disabilities.

When measuring the absolute numbers, we can observe that from 2/2021 to 11/2022 there was an increase of about 1,500,000 disabilities in the Population aged 16-64 while there were about 300,000 excess deaths (for the 25-64 age group), during that period. After adjusting the size of the 25-64 age group for excess deaths to the 16-64 age group of the disabilities (by dividing by 81.5%), we obtain an estimate of excess deaths of about 352,900 excess deaths.

The ratio of the increase in disabilities divided by the excess deaths is R=1,500,000/352,900 ~ 4.25.

Civilian Labor Force 16-64

The following charts compare the rise in the total number of disabilities with the rise in excess mortality for the Civilian Labor Force aged 16-64. The chart on the left refers to the time series from 2/2021 (after the vaccine rollout) to 11/2022. The chart on the right, shows the correlation between both time series, with the respective regression line illustrated.

Increase in disabilities in Civilian Labor Force (16-64) vs vaccine doses

We can observe from the charts above that the rise in disabilities from 2/2021 was accompanied with a rise in excess mortality. The relationship is quite strong as can be observed by the chart on the right. The slope of the regression line is 4.0 which suggests that for each excess death during this period, there were 4.0 more disabilities. As previously mentioned, as the excess mortality age group (25-64) represents roughly 81.5% of the population of the disability age group (16-64) we need to make this adjustment to the slope of the regression, which results in: each excess death during this period corresponded to about 3.26 more disabilities.

When measuring the absolute numbers, we can observe that from 2/2021 to 11/2022 there was an increase of about 1,400,000 disabilities in the Civilian Labor Force aged 16-64 while there were about 300,000 excess deaths (for the 25-64 age group), during that period. After adjusting the size of the 25-64 age group for excess deaths to the 16-64 age group of the disabilities (by dividing by 81.5%), we obtain an estimate of excess deaths of about 352,900 excess deaths.

The ratio of the increase in disabilities divided by the excess deaths is R=1,400,000/352,900 ~ 4.0

Population 65+

The following charts compare the rise in the total number of disabilities with the rise in excess mortality for the whole population aged 65+. The chart on the left refers to the time series from 2/2021 (after the vaccine rollout) to 11/2022. The chart on the right, shows the correlation between both time series, with the respective regression line illustrated.

Increase in disabilities in Population (65+) vs vaccine doses

We can observe from the charts above that the rise in disabilities from 2/2021 was accompanied with a rise in excess mortality. The relationship is quite strong as can be observed by the chart on the right. The slope of the regression line is 2.71 which suggests that for each excess death during this period, there were 2.71 more disabilities.

When measuring the absolute numbers we can observe that from 2/2021 to 11/2022 the was an increase of about 1,400,000 disabilities in the Population aged 65+ while there were about 400,000 excess deaths during that period. The ratio of the increase in disabilities divided by the excess deaths is R=1,400,000/400,000 = 3.5.